Orono, Maine 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

465
FXUS61 KCAR 312310
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
610 PM EST Fri Jan 31 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A low will cross the Gulf of Maine tonight then exit across the
Maritimes Saturday. High pressure will cross the region later
Saturday into Sunday. Another low crosses the region Monday then
exits across the Maritimes Tuesday. High pressure returns
Wednesday before another system approaches late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
6:10 PM Update: An elongated area of surface low pressure
extends along a baroclinic zone from the Gulf of Maine to
Central PA early this evening. Small waves of low pressure will
track along this boundary to the south of the CWA tonight.
Moisture will overspread the southern half of the area this
evening in the form of snow. The highest snowfall totals are
expected to be along the coast and outer islands where a few
inches of snow is likely. Snowfall amounts drop off to the north
with an inch or two in Bangor, and no snow expected to the
north of the Katahdin Region. Minor tweaks to account for the
current and expected conditions tonight, but overall changes are
very minor.

Previous discussion:
The upper level trof over the Great Lakes will push into the
region tonight. The surface low pressure system over New England
will stretch the warm front across the waters. Upper level
models show ridging across the north which will keep the system
over the waters, which will also keep the majority of the snow
to the south. The shift in wind from the NE will bring colder
temps tonight. This coupled with the dry air ahead of the snow
and the system staying to the south will bring light fluffy snow
to Downeast. Snow amounts along the coast should be around 2-3
inches and intercoastal amounts around 1-2 inches.

By Saturday, the low pressure system will exit over the Atlantic
with the next high pressure over the Great Lakes approaching
from the west. Pressure gradients will tighten between the two
systems, causing NNW winds to become breezy throughout the day.
Cold air behind the system will keep temps in the single digits
in the north and teens in the south, though skies will be clear.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Clear skies Saturday night associated with the high pressure
building into the region will allow for ample radiational
cooling. Temperatures are expected to dip well below zero
especially across northern Maine. Light winds and a 6-10 inch
snow depth will further support these low temps. Any increase
in wind speed or slowing arrival time of the high could
necessitate increasing the low temperatures.

Sunday evening the next system moves in as weak low pressure to
our north moves east. Precipitation looks to be mainly snow
except for a changeover to rain likely over the Bangor and
Downeast regions. Snow accumulations are likely to be relatively
light and most areas are expected to see just a few inches.
Warm air advection associated with this storm should result in a
warm-up across the state Monday afternoon resulting in
temperatures reaching the upper 30s Downeast and low 30s
farther north.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Snow tapers off Monday evening although a few wrap-around snow
showers may persist overnight as the cold front passes through
the area. High pressure builds in behind the system leading to
mostly quiet weather Tuesday with a mix of sun and clouds,
becoming mostly clear overnight.

Models continue to suggest that there will be a system in the
Wednesday to Thursday night time frame although there is still
considerable uncertainty as to the strength, position, and
timing of the low. Currently keeping mostly snow in the forecast
for northern regions given the currently forecasted weak nature
of the system which will make it difficult to advect enough warm
air to support a transition to rain. Rain is more likely over
the Downeast and Bangor regions where warm air is more likely to
inundate the area enough to support a transition from snow.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Aroostook Terminals...VFR tonight and Saturday. N
winds 5-10 kts tonight, then NNW winds 10-15 kts Saturday with
gusts up to 25 kts.

Downeast Terminals...VFR early this evening, then dropping to
MVFR/IFR cigs/vsby before midnight tonight in snow. Conditions
will improve to VFR by Saturday morning. N winds 5-10 kts
tonight, then NNW winds 10-15 kts Saturday with gusts up to 25
kts.

SHORT TERM: VFR through early Sunday afternoon, becoming MVFR
and eventually IFR Sunday night as snow develops across the
region dropping cig/vsby. MVFR Monday with some northern
terminals remaining at MVFR as snow lingers. Winds 5-10 kts with
gusts 10-15 kts.

VFR conditions return Tuesday and last through Wednesday
afternoon, becoming MVFR in the evening with light snow.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A Small Craft advisory has been issued for this
evening through Saturday due to gusts up to 30 kts and seas 6-9
ft on the coastal waters, and 3-5 ft on the intra-coastal
waters.

SHORT TERM: Small craft advisory remains in effect through
Saturday night. Winds decrease to 5-10 kts with gusts up to 15 kts
and seas 2-4 ft on Sunday. SCA conditions return Sunday night
and last through Tuesday before dropping below SCA levels
through Wednesday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$


Near Term...CB/LaFlash
Short Term...Melanson
Long Term...Melanson
Aviation...CB/LaFlash/Melanson
Marine...CB/LaFlash/Melanson