Orono, Maine 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

396
FXUS61 KCAR 022106
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
406 PM EST Sun Feb 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak warm front lifts into the area late tonight followed by
an occluding front Monday night. High pressure slowly returns
Tuesday through Wednesday before another low pressure
moves into the area on Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A large occlusion located to the north will swing a warm front
through the region tonight. Snow is expected to begin early
tonight in the west, then spread to the east before midnight.
Weak S flow with the system will push precip band north. Due to
the upsloping in the Central Highlands, the majority of the snow
will remain along the higher terrain. However, typical warm
front bands will bring some localized high snow amounts across
the region with bands in the south tonight and bands in the
north by Monday morning.

By Monday, snow will continue with the higher amounts moving to
the NE. As the frontal boundary exits by the afternoon, the dry
slot will move in causing snow to dissipate and temps will start
to increase with the S flow. High temps of low 30s across the
region, except along the coast where temps will reach into the
upper 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front will enter the forecast area Monday night, crossing
through the forecast area through the night. This front will
bring another quick additional 1 to 3 inches of light snow over
the area before exiting to the east and drier air returning
behind the front. That said, the speed at which the front moves
through is still a bit uncertain. Many global deterministic
models move the front through more quickly, while hires guidance
suggests a later start and slower progression. The answer will
lie in how quickly the parent low pulls northeast and away from
the area, with a slower occlusion to the parent low resulting in
a slower progression of the cold front.

High pressure will build in behind the cold front into the day
on Wednesday. Temperatures will fall back below seasonal
averages with cold air advection pulling high temperatures into
the lower teens across the north and around 20 Downeast. With
cold air in place and continued winds under the tightened
pressure gradient between the departing low and the incoming
high, wind chills could approach 20 below in the north early
Wednesday morning, and approaching 10 below Downeast during this
time.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The ridge of high pressure will continue to slide eastward into
the second half of the week, allowing for a low pressure system
to move into the New England region from the west. With cold
temperatures remaining well established, this system is expected
to be all snow for most of our forecast area on Thursday, aside
from some rain that could mix in along the coast. The extent at
which warm air moves into the Coastal Downeast area and allows
for a switch to rain will depend on subtle shifts in the low
track. Model agreement is quite good in the track of this storm,
leading to likely accumulating precip throughout northern and
eastern Maine. With west to northwesterly winds under a
tightened pressure gradient aloft in the wake of this storm,
some plumes of snow showers could generate off the St. Lawrence
on Friday, leading to additional light snowfall across the north
through Friday afternoon.

A narrow ridge of high pressure will return on Saturday, though
this high pressure could be brief as another storm may approach
the area this weekend. Timing and track uncertainties remain at
this point in the forecast, with the CMC taking the low furthest
south, and the ECMWF bringing the low across the center of the
CWA. However, this system is shown across all guidance, and will
continue to be closely monitored over the next several forecast
cycles.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions for this evening and early tonight for
all terminals. Then conditions will lower to MVFR/IFR cigs/vsby
due to snow for all terminals after midnight and into Monday. S
winds 5-10 kts tonight and Monday. LLWS for north terminals
tonight after midnight.


SHORT TERM:
Mon night - Tues: IFR cigs and brief IFR vis in light snow, then
improving towards MVFR later in the day on Tues. Light SW winds
shifting NW and increasing to 10 to 15 kts with gusts 20 to 25
kts.

Tues night - Wed night: VFR across all terminals. NW winds 5 to
10 kts.

Thurs - Thurs night: Rapid decrease from VFR to IFR/LIFR in
incoming snow. S to SE winds 5 to 10 kts, shifting SW late.

Fri: Improvement towards VFR Downeast, northern terminals may
remain MVFR/IFR, especially in lingering snow showers. W winds
10 to 15 kts with gusts 20 to 25 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for all waters
beginning tonight and continuing into Monday due to gusty winds
and seas 4-6 ft.


SHORT TERM: Small craft advisory conditions will continue Monday
night before wind gusts ramp up to gale force during the day on
Tuesday across the coastal waters. Winds will begin to tape off
again into the day on Wednesday, falling below SCA levels and
seas fall below 5 ft, but Tuesday night will see light to
moderate freezing spray.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST
     Monday for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$


Near Term...LaFlash
Short Term...AStrauser
Long Term...AStrauser
Aviation...LaFlash/AStrauser
Marine...LaFlash/AStrauser